Ney investing

As a follow up of the post https://neyinvesting.blogspot.com/2015/04/how-much-of-stock-should-i-buy.html How to figure out how confident is someone of their stock suggestion? Maybe you are interviewing someone, following a news letter with stock tips, or just watching investment that the gurus made on tv.  Here is a good rule of thumb that works for me.  I created a matrix to figure out as a rule of thumb the confidence of someone in their investment, bet, idea... according to the size of a position: Quick explanation of the picture bellow: 1) Never mind the formulas of the left that's explained in detail on the other post. 2) this matrix has a risk reward ratio, for example if you think you can double you initial bet, then you have a 2 risk on reward ratio. 100% risk divided by the 200% reward. a 10 risk reward means you expect the investment to go up 10 times. 3) the other axis is winning probability. if some one tell you they think the investment will go up 3 times (3...

Risk Measures Benchmark Comparison Risk Analysis Value Added Monthly Index (VAMI) SPXTR EFA VT U1459543 Ending VAMI: 1,029.68 927.09 996.16 1,916.38 Max Drawdown: 33.79% 33.93% 34.23% 29.00% Peak-To-Valley: 02/19/20 - 03/23/20 01/17/20 - 03/23/20 02/12/20 - 03/23/20 03/13/20 - 03/23/20 Recovery: 100 Days Ongoing 110 Days 16 Days Sharpe Ratio: 0.30 -0.12 0.17 1.77 Sortino Ratio: 0.41 -0.16 0.23 2.71 Standard Deviation: 2.43% 2.18% 2.31% 3.83% Downside Deviation: 1.78% 1.69% 1.75% 2.50% Correlation: 0.77 0.75 0.78 - β: 1.22 1.31 1.29 - α: 0.95 1.15 1.01 - Mean Return: 0.05% -0.02% 0.02% 0.42% Positive Periods: 111 (59.04%) 106 (56.38%) 107 (56.91%) 105 (55.85%) Negative Periods: 77 (40.96%) 82 (43.62%) 81 (43.09%) 83 (44.15%) Please read the article "Blog's "read me first"" Terms And Conditions Of Use All content provided on this blog is for informational purposes only. The owner of this blog makes no representations as to the accuracy or completeness of any info...