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How to figure out how confident is someone of their stock suggestion?

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As a follow up of the post https://neyinvesting.blogspot.com/2015/04/how-much-of-stock-should-i-buy.html How to figure out how confident is someone of their stock suggestion? Maybe you are interviewing someone, following a news letter with stock tips, or just watching investment that the gurus made on tv.  Here is a good rule of thumb that works for me.  I created a matrix to figure out as a rule of thumb the confidence of someone in their investment, bet, idea... according to the size of a position: Quick explanation of the picture bellow: 1) Never mind the formulas of the left that's explained in detail on the other post. 2) this matrix has a risk reward ratio, for example if you think you can double you initial bet, then you have a 2 risk on reward ratio. 100% risk divided by the 200% reward. a 10 risk reward means you expect the investment to go up 10 times. 3) the other axis is winning probability. if some one tell you they think the investment will go up 3 times (3 Risk rewa

Year to date portfolio performance vs the market (Risk Measures Benchmark Comparison)

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Risk Measures Benchmark Comparison Risk Analysis Value Added Monthly Index (VAMI) SPXTR EFA VT U1459543 Ending VAMI: 1,029.68 927.09 996.16 1,916.38 Max Drawdown: 33.79% 33.93% 34.23% 29.00% Peak-To-Valley: 02/19/20 - 03/23/20 01/17/20 - 03/23/20 02/12/20 - 03/23/20 03/13/20 - 03/23/20 Recovery: 100 Days Ongoing 110 Days 16 Days Sharpe Ratio: 0.30 -0.12 0.17 1.77 Sortino Ratio: 0.41 -0.16 0.23 2.71 Standard Deviation: 2.43% 2.18% 2.31% 3.83% Downside Deviation: 1.78% 1.69% 1.75% 2.50% Correlation: 0.77 0.75 0.78 - β: 1.22 1.31 1.29 - α: 0.95 1.15 1.01 - Mean Return: 0.05% -0.02% 0.02% 0.42% Positive Periods: 111 (59.04%) 106 (56.38%) 107 (56.91%) 105 (55.85%) Negative Periods: 77 (40.96%) 82 (43.62%) 81 (43.09%) 83 (44.15%) Please read the article "Blog's "read me first"" Terms And Conditions Of Use All content provided on this blog is for informational purposes only. The owner of this blog makes no representations as to the accuracy or completeness of any info

31) 50% a year guarantee Buffett challenge with Ney Torres

After years of studding Buffett I figure how to generate 50% a year... Is not what you think. “If I was running $1 million today, or $10 million for that matter, I’d be fully invested. Anyone who says that size does not hurt investment performance is selling. The highest rates of return I’ve ever achieved were in the 1950s. I killed the Dow. You ought to see the numbers. But I was investing peanuts then. It’s a huge structural advantage not to have a lot of money. I think I could make you 50% a year on $1 million.  No, I know I could. I guarantee that.” --  Warren Buffett Check out this episode!

30) Leverage and going global with Brad Sugars

How to go global? Brad   Sugars  started the ActionCOACH brand in 1993 in Brisbane, Australia. Today the company is ranked as the leading business coaching franchise by Entrepreneur magazine. ActionCOACH operates in over 80 countries and has more than 1,000 coaches around the world, coaching 15,000 business every week. The franchise has received numerous awards including Fastest Growing Franchise, Franchisee Satisfaction, Best Overall Company and has been named the number one business coaching franchise in the world every year since 2004. Using the coaching strategies that have helped thousands of companies around the world,  Brad   Sugars  and his executive team helped lead ActionCOACH and its coaches to some of its most profitable and best years ever... in the face of challenging economic conditions.  Brad   Sugars  and his team continue to build “business re-education” to new, more innovative and exciting levels. Check out this episode!

29) Brad Sugars on Financial freedom, buying businesses without your own money

What could you do if you are starting from $0, with the right education? Brad   Sugars  started the ActionCOACH brand in 1993 in Brisbane, Australia. Today the company is ranked as the leading business coaching franchise by Entrepreneur magazine. ActionCOACH operates in over 80 countries and has more than 1,000 coaches around the world, coaching 15,000 business every week. The franchise has received numerous awards including Fastest Growing Franchise, Franchisee Satisfaction, Best Overall Company and has been named the number one business coaching franchise in the world every year since 2004. Using the coaching strategies that have helped thousands of companies around the world,  Brad   Sugars  and his executive team helped lead ActionCOACH and its coaches to some of its most profitable and best years ever... in the face of challenging economic conditions.  Brad   Sugars  and his team continue to build “business re-education” to new, more innovative and exciting levels. Check out thi

28) How culture can raise performance 300% or more with John King

Today, I have the honor to talk to Mr. John King. You may know John because he wrote a very important book called "Tribal Leadership", maybe one of the top 20 books in leadership.  And as business is about relationships. If you're going to understand business, you have to master relationships. Welcome to the show, John... Check out this episode!

27) Why invest in tankers now with Mariusz Skonieczny

Why invest in tankers now could be a good idea? with Mariusz Skonieczny Historically Tankers have been a terrible business... but something may be changing, and fast. stng - Scorpio Tankers Inc tnk - Teekay Tankers Ltd eurn - Euronav NV lpg - Dorian LPG Ltd dht - DHT Holdings Inc Check out this episode!

26) Mariusz Skonieczny on his way to a 10000% return

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Mariusz Skonieczny found a remarkably interesting stock when it was trading at a couple of cents per share, today that stock trades a $0.43, and he think there is plenty more to come. Have you ever wondered how a 100 bagger looks like? yes, that is 100 times your investment. Well... here is the story. Check out this episode!       Mariusz Skonieczny on his way to a 10000% return Unknown Speaker: [00:00:00] Welcome to Financially Free Podcast with your host, Ney Torres. One of the reasons Ney could retire when he was 25 years old is because he was coached by the best and now through this podcast so can you. [00:00:18] Ney Torres: [00:00:18] Welcome to the show today. I'm talking to Mariusz Skonieczny. Did I pronounce that correctly? [00:00:22] Mariusz Skonieczny: [00:00:22] Yeah. Close. [00:00:23] Ney Torres: [00:00:23] How do you pronounce it? [00:00:24] Mariusz Skonieczny: [00:00:24] Skonieczny. [00:00:25] Ney Torres: [00:00:25] Skonieczny. I'm sorry about t

How I made 56% return in 9 months (revised)

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(I edited the language on this post, the original is still up just in case, thanks to my P A (SAM) . remember my first language  is not english. ✌) On 19 th  September 2019, I was interviewed for  YFS Magazine . In that interview, I predicted the end of the 13-year bull market. This insight drove me to prove that it’s possible to achieve over 50% returns using the Buffet Challenge. Growing up, Warren Buffett was a hero of mine (still is) – I studied his rise to fortune and his intense strategies. Now, I was going to try them. To paraphrase Buffet, he said something like: “It’s a huge structural advantage to not have a lot of money to invest. I could make you 50% on $1million. I know I could.” So, I wanted to test this theory and take up the 50% challenge. With $20,000 , I made a 56% return in just 9 months. Imagine how that’ll keep building if an investor continue to focus in dark corners of the market In fact, as I only invested for the challenge, I’m now sitting on the cash made and

How much of a stock should I buy ? (how to calculate position size)

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This is by far the most important question in investing. Just think about it for a minute. Your logic could be completely wrong about an investment and the stock price still can go your way for many other reasons. After all your investment can only go in 1 of 3 directions: up, down or stay "flat". Let's imagine you decide to buy an imaginary stock, lets call it "123".  123 is going through bad times but you read the 10k´s, 8Q´s, investigate the new companies president, interview customers and former customers, etc. And your conclusion is that they are going to be able to attract clients again at the same volumes that they did before, they are going through a one time solvable problem. Today the price of the stock is at $10 and you think that eventually (tricky word "eventually") it will get back to $60+, as they where a couple of years ago. " You don't trade the markets .... you trade  your beliefs about the  markets ." - Van Tharp