34) What would a young Buffett do? Svenda´s Manual with David Flood and Jan Svenda
David Flood from elementaryvalue.com and Jan Svenda https://jansvenda.com/ took the time to check 7000 of small, obscure stocks. That´s exactly what I think a young Warren Buffett would do, if he had to start again from 0.
Lucky for you, they tell us what they found in this search of years, just wait to hear this story.
In the interview, Adam Smith asked Warren about the advice that he would give to a younger Warren Buffett if he entered the markets today. This is what Warren replied:
Adam Smith: If a younger Warren Buffett were coming into the investment field today, what areas would you tell him to point himself in?
Warren Buffett: Well, if he were doing – if he were coming in and working with small sums of capital I’d tell him to do exactly what I did 40-odd years ago, which is to learn about every company in the United States that has publicly traded securities and that bank of knowledge will do him or her terrific good over time.
Smith: But there’s 27,000 public companies.
Buffett: Well, start with the A’s.
34) What would a you Buffett do - Svenda´s Manual with David
Flood and Jan Svenda
Ney
Torres: [00:00:00] Welcome to the show everybody. Today we are
talking about Svenda's Manual. Welcome to the show guys.
David
Flood: [00:00:09] Thanks for having for us.
Ney
Torres: [00:00:10] So, can you explain to me, Jan, how did you
create this manual and what is it about? David, how did you create this
database? Because I was seeing some other podcasts and you guys went through 7,000
stocks in the OTC market. That's amazing. Then you ended up with 400. So, I
really needed to talk about is what did you guys find? What was the process
like? Mr. Svenda, would you like to start?
Young
Svenda: [00:00:38] Yeah, sure. Thanks a lot. Thanks a lot for the
invite. Now, as you mentioned, we did do a lot of research in DOTC space. So,
I'm coming from a background of running a newsletter focused on the space. So,
for two years I've ran a newsletter focused exclusively on DOTC space. I'm
coming from like the deep Valley philosophy, basically searching for the
undervalued stocks in the forgotten market. Let's say of the OTC market because
a lot of people have a lot of prejudices about how the market works and whether
there are actually meaningful opportunities. A lot of that comes from the fact
that there is a lot of stocks there and a lot of them are just meaningless. A
lot of them are companies that are either pump and dumps that still works or
there are companies that are really, you know meaningless in terms of the
product. People are trying to do some businesses that are not really great. A
lot of that Kind of always makes people kind of feel reserved about the OTC
market because they just looked at it a couple of times and they saw, "Well,
it's not really not really meaningful. It's not really something probably worth
investing in but if you actually do the work and if you go through the market,
you will understand there's a lot of like specific investment opportunities
that are worth looking into an actually investing. So, I started the newsletter
and through that time, I kind of went around the market and really looked at
every single company or most of the companies out there and pinpoint which are
worth following that the companies that are really should be in the focus of
the investors. So, that's kind of the main idea behind the newsletter as well
as the database with which we are now working on with David. So, basically the
database is kind of cocreation of us two where I kind of came with my research
from the newsletter, which I used to run. David came as a kind of individually
the investor focused on it, but maybe he can tell you a bit more about it for
sure himself. But for me, it was kind of the newsletter. I was always
interested in the OTC market and then I understood what is one of the main
problems of the market, and that is knowing the companies that are meaningful
because there's just so many of them. And so, many of them are just crap. We
can talk about it all day. All the great examples, like Bigfoot company and so
and so forth, which is just a company that is looking for Bigfoot. And that's
without a joke and all these kinds of crappy companies, but then you have also
a lot of interesting stocks that can make you money. So, that's a bit about me
and how I kind of went about researching the OTC market. I know that you had
Dan Shaun on, right?
Ney
Torres: [00:03:49] Yeah. Great guy.
Young
Svenda: [00:03:52] Yup. Basically, he's doing OTC stuff, right?
Very, very similar for a very similar approach.
Ney
Torres: [00:04:00] Perfect. David, how do you get involved with the
project?
David
Flood: [00:04:03] So, I initially began getting interested in
investing in 2013 and I started to study value investing and then I became
interested in the deep value side of things. So, looking at Ben Graham's, Net,
Net Investing which kind of drew me towards much smaller companies. And then I
realized that a lot of the most interesting companies could be found on the
over the counter markets. So, I picked up some of the old Walker's manuals,
which are these old stock manuals that contain all these old strange companies
that you don't really find much information about on the internet and I started
to look at other blogs that were writing about these kinds of companies, and I
found a Dan Shaun's work and I found a Young Svenda's work as well. So, I
decided to follow Young's lead of working my way through the over the counter
market stock by stock. And I looked through several thousand companies and then
I would write these companies up on my own investment blog,
elementaryvalue.com. And then over time, I just kind of started getting closer
with other over the counter market investors that were looking at these stocks
and then me and Young had a chat and decided that it might be quite cool. We
created a product where we put all the interesting companies that we'd found
together to create a database that contained all the interesting and meaningful
companies because the problem with the over the counter markets is that you've
got several thousand companies there but the vast majority of them, they're
just complete garbage. They're not even worth looking at that just kind of like
that could be frauds or pump and dumps, or just kind of empty shells with no
real value. So, we have worked out way through thousands of stocks and
basically picked out all the interesting companies and then compiled them into
a database for other investors, just to save them hundreds of hours of work
going through all these companies.
Ney
Torres: [00:06:03] God bless you guys. And what is the process like?
Do you have screeners or do you call every company? Because every company is
different. How they show financial statements would wonder not reporting to the
agencies, especially great companies, dark companies. How do you do it?
Young
Svenda: [00:06:19] So, we will class each company that we find
depending on whether they report with the SCC whether they are reporting on
their own company website or whether they are just not reporting publicly all.
So, we'll class these as kind of SCC compliant, gray reporting, which means you
can get hold of some information or completely dark, which means that the
company is just not reporting any information to the public. And then we focus
a lot of our attention on these companies that are either gray reporting or
dark. And we conduct a lot of investigations into these companies to try and
get hold of financials and find out information about the company because these
are often some of the most interesting value propositions for investors where
the largest mispricing occurs simply because there's no publicly available
information on them. So, we basically do a lot of the hard work to find out
that what's going on with these companies, whether they're undervalued and then
we add them to the database. And if we can get hold of financials for these
companies that are dark by contacting the investor relations department or
finding some way of getting hold of them. We can then add these to our
database. So, other investors have access to them.
David
Flood: [00:07:36] Yeah. I would just add I guess the process looking
at the OTC market is really way different than your NASDAQ's and then OICs just
because of the lack of lack of screening data. So, for example, you mentioned
do you screen for them, do you do that?
A lot of times actually the best way to do that in DOTC market is really
to go through as they say A to Z, which is like have one company after another,
trying to understand whether there is an opportunity, whether their financials,
whether the financials are correct. For example, other screeners and so on and
so forth. So, actually relying on screeners in the OTC market, it can be very
shortsighted because a lot of times the operators is so obscure or so specific
that you can screen for it. I want to example for all is Mills Music Trust
which is a great trust that owns royalties for songs basically. And did they
just generate the royalties from songs each quarter and we send you a dividend,
right? Now, this company, for example, is SCC reporting but it would be very
hard to screen for it, right? Because they don't have any assets. They have the
portfolio of the rights to the songs but they don't show that on the balance
sheet that you show the Corpus of the Trust which is basically just the cash
positions and the movements and so on and so forth. They showcase the dividends
you could find it through the dividends. But a lot of, again, a lot of times
the websites don't have the right dividend yield or you can't really find all
of them and so on and so forth. So, a lot of times it's kind of different in,
in, in that sense. And so, you could screen for that and try to find it but it
would be very hard. By going one by one, you can actually find the company and
say, "Hey, this is a great stock because it can yield like 12% a year.
Now, for the past few years, even more now. So, these things kind of take time
and are a lot of times the manual, if you want to have a really good command of
the OTC market. So, the process is 19th century so to speak for some investors
but that's maybe perhaps why there are still quite a few interesting
opportunities out there because the process is much more manual than in other
places.
Ney
Torres: [00:09:59] And that's why we're making this interview
because that's exactly what the advantages is its hard work, but you guys are
making it easier now. I noticed you have the database, you have price to
tangible book value meaning you have the company dies, how much you will get back
basically. As the only metric, are you guys going to add income expenses or
something like that in the future?
Young
Svenda: [00:10:31] Yeah. I can certainly go ahead with that.
Basically, right now it's price of tangible book just because to give a kind of
basic overview of the valuation. If it's really crazy undervalued, you will see
below one price a tangible book which can give you a sense of I should look
into it because what's behind the next pricing what's there. One note you say
is the tangible book is again also kind of manual computation because we kind
of know what we should deduct then so also for it's a lot of times book value
as a whole can be also misleading. So, we just took the tangible book to kind
of showcase what could be the opportunities are right now. But yes, we will add
a price to sales and price to earnings, so revenue and earnings. Again, for the
SCC stocks it's pretty easy to get the information on your own but we are going
to focus on the gray and dark stocks and where are we going to provide more
information. So, that's certainly in the works right now, the screening is for
the fundamental data is limited to price the tangible book. Although it can
already kind of help you but this will be another addition very, very soon.
Ney
Torres: [00:11:48] You must mention that you guys have in all of his
talks, a section where you can put all the opinions or ask questions and stuff
like that for the 400 stocks that you have done. David, I was looking at the
qualifications for every stock and I see from bankruptcies, dark stocks, gray
stocks, but so Russian SEC. How come do you guys have a Russian SEC?
David
Flood: [00:12:16] Well, I might let Young take this one actually
because this is one of the stocks that he added to the database. I'll let Young
answer that one.
Young
Svenda: [00:12:25] Yeah. So, this is a cool one. One of the sources,
we don't have many foreign stocks there. So, the OTC market is filled with
foreign stocks as well. So, Canadian stocks and so on and so forth. So, when
you talk about a 7,000, for example, stocks are usually US based stocks. So,
that's really important to kind of say that we don't really have many of the
foreign stocks because usually you can just go to Canada and buy it there much
better. So, it makes sense. But there are a couple of stocks on the OTC market
that are worth following and it's a Russian company, a Russian oil and gas
company that has a huge cash position and pays out a lot of dividends. That's
so good as GTP wide and that's a dividend play basically, and we covered it in
our research as well. We had a guest contributor write about why he believes
the stock is great. It's a preferred stock with based mainly dividends and it
had some great dividend yields in the past years. And there's actually a way to
kind of calculate the dividend yield before it actually happens because you can
kind of estimate a dividend from the operation. So, that's why the Russian SCC
there.
Ney
Torres: [00:13:39] Got it. So, I'm going to ask each one of you
guys. Can you give us an example of a crazy undervalue stock they could found?
I know you mentioned the music one, the royalty one. Can you give us each one
of you an example of what you have found this in looking at 7,000 stocks,
basically.
David
Flood: [00:13:59] I'll go first. I think, well, a one that I came
across which was a really interesting company was ECC Capital Cart which is a
ticker symbol, E-C-R-O and this was an old former mortgage REIT that kind of
got obliterated in the financial crisis of 2008. And I think that the market
had kind of assumed that the company was just kind of dead, so they just kind
of left it in the stock price drifted down for several years. The company went
completely dark and they weren't responding to shareholders or investors. There
was no news coming out but I've came across the stock on the over the counter
markets. And initially I kind of just went past it and didn't really pay too
much attention to it. But another smart investor who I've become friends with
he decided to conduct a bit more research on the company. And he managed to
figure out that it was still basically an operating company and it was still
receiving money on the ownership in some securitization trusts and it also
received some payouts from some litigation. He realized that actually this
company was probably sound quite a nice chunk of assets and it was probably
hugely undervalued. He kind of built up a position in the company. I bought
some shares and some other people did and they began to kind of apply some
pressure on management to go current with the financials to kind of update the
website and put out some financials just to let investors know what the current
state of the company was. So, at that time it was trading at about I think an
eighth of a cent. It was below a cent and then they piled the financials and it
turned out they had like 7.70 cents in net cash and like 15.40 cents in book
value. So, the stock price basically shot up 800% in about two days just
because the company put out some information and said, "Well, actually,
we've got these assets on our balance sheet. We've got no debt and we're
actually a profitable company. Very, very rarely do you ever see those kinds of
price moves on any kind of listed stocks, unless there's some kind of completely
crazy event that occurs. But regularly, you will see those kinds of events
happen on the over the counter markets, just because you're dealing with such
small companies and the information that's available is so hard to come by. It
requires a lot of research and investigation so then when that kind of
information becomes public. You'll see these huge price moves because these
companies have such small market capitalizations and often, they're quite
illiquid. The shares and not kind of widely traded. So, as soon as there's any
kind of demand for the stock, the share price will explode. That's probably one
of the most interesting ones that I've come across recently.
Young
Svenda: [00:17:00] And for me, I think I can give a good example of
one that was recently acquired. So, recently kind of finished or the thesis was
kind of finished on this one. Basically, it was a car insurance company and I
think I like the example, one other reason and that its kind of showcases why
the database could be very helpful for people because car insurance company, it
was a specialty car insurance company in the US and basically it was labeled as
dark on the OTC market with com. So, this is the website where all the
companies are and if you were to be an investor, you would just kind of look at
it and say, "Oh, it's a dark company. It's probably not worth researching
because maybe the financials are not up to date, they are not really usable,
easily accessible and so on so forth. But actually, if you did the work you would
be able to find that they report audited annual results even quarterly results
and that you were actually able to analyze the business. The name of the
company was GANS Co. The ticker is G-A-N-S, it's still trading but it's the
last days of the trading before the merger happens or at least that's how I
checked my brokerage. You can always check time but I'm not super sure whether
it went through completely but basically what happened there was and why I want
to highlight it is that this company has been producing so much cashflow. That
was one thing that really caught my eye. So, it was trading below tangible
book. So, basically it was a company that was that had a market gap of like
60-50 million or something like that. Tangible books about like a hundred when
I first found it. So, you can see that actually there was upside even in that
but then you also had the cashflow which was very, very strong. They were able
to produce around 10 million, I think and in free cashflow and sorts of free
cashflow yield was also very high. So, basically, it's kind of like that class
like the GM that you're looking for, if you're a value investor like it's
priced ad fraction tangible book and it's creating cash flow. So, there's not
really like some ice cube so to speak or an asset that will have value only if
unlocked and on top of all of that, they were actually paying dividends a
special dividend. So, not every year, but like every two years they paid out a
nice special dividend, a couple of dollars a share. So, when you look at that,
you start to think like what's wrong? What am I missing? This is a great
opportunity and since I dig into it, I really couldn't find much. I mean,
they've been just running their business really well, I mean, it was after a
turnaround. So, the company did have some troubled past but basically after
2010, it was turned around by a skilled management team and the cashflow was
really strong at our first founded in about 2017 when it was a maybe perhaps
like 14-15 dollars a share or something like that. And because I was going
through one by one company after another. I was able to give the time to
research it properly and to make sure that I find out whether there is an
opportunity or not and once I did one analyzes, I mean, it sounded like a no
brainer. And then it went up a hundred present over the past two years which
was nice because the operation just continued to generate cashflow and so on
and so forth. It was just a still a no brainer. But then recently they were
acquired in September for about a hundred dollars a year by a different
insurer. So, I mean, this was a nice exit. Almost eight times or return and the
whole point was that this stock it was not really obscure. I mean, for example,
David talked about our dark company and these kind of event driven situations
which can be interesting. But for some, it might be just a bit obscure, but
really do DC market is not only about that. You can really find companies that
make sense are not hard to analyze and actually you can get some advantages by
doing the work so I think this is a great idea or a great Chuukese for how the
database actually can help investors because with the database you could have
known about GANS CO. You could have attracted and you could have done that. I
said to herself and see, well it's probably still valuable even if it's trading
at $30 a share. So, that's my favorite kind of Crazy undervalued stock because
even though the return might be okay it was great of course, and so and so
forth. But, but still, I think the whole point was that if this was an easily
analyzable situation, which you could really understand and everybody could
understand it and it was just there and yeah, I guess not many people or
another many investors found about you know, that did the research and got to
know about them company. That's my story.
Ney
Torres: [00:22:21] Yeah, that's why I want to make this episode. I
think this is exactly what the young Warren buffet will do. He will look into
the dark stocks. They take some time, the amount of work that you guys are
putting in because that that's what the jewels are. The big stuff's already.
So, many people are looking at them, they're overpriced or fairly price but
this is what you have to do if you want to have big returns. I want to make a
couple of questions about those two stocks that you guys mentioned. First of
all, David, you mentioned that the stock, you mention there was some pressure
on to management to for them to put their financials publicly. How was this
process? Because that's very interesting to me. How do you pressure the
management? Do you sell emails? You call them. You do a proxified.
David
Flood: [00:23:12] Yes. So, this company in question, some other
individuals, I think one of them who runs a small value fund acquired a reasonable
sized position. And then he basically contacted the management and said,
"Look, well We'd like you to put some financials and raise kind of
investor and shareholder awareness about the company. We've done our research
and we know that the company is massively undervalued and that you're your
sound, a nice asset base. And you don't really have much in the way of debt and
in that instance, the management was amenable to becoming more open about the
company and they were happy to put out updated financials. Whereas in other
instances with some companies on the, over the counter markets the management
are not very interested in putting out financials. And in some cases, you have
to kind of take the call-in order to get hold of the financials. Every situation
is slightly different. You'll find with some companies you can literally just
email the secretary or call them up and they'll just mail you out financials.
No questions asked. So, I've had financials mailed out to me from America to
the United Kingdom and paper mail, no questions asked. I didn't even own shares
in the company. I just emailed the secretary and she was very happy to see a
certain amount to meet. Whereas other companies are, may contact them and they
don't want to talk that they maybe no, one's spoken to them in a long time.
There's such a small company they have no investor relations department.
They're not used to people asking about the company. So, over time you have to
develop a number of different techniques that you can use to research these
companies. So. We will use things like we will use pacer where we will go and
look at court documents. We will use Google Street View to go and look at the
premises. Maybe see how many cars are parked in the parking lot to figure out
how many employees they've got. We'll use land tax records to figure out what
land that the company owns and how much that land is worth. So, over time, we
built up a lot of different techniques to try and figure out what's going on
with some of these companies that are dark to figure out whether we think
there's a situation where there's going to be an undervalued stock there and
anytime we find interesting company or an interesting stock like that, we add
it to the database and then we provide our comments about the company and any
information that we've managed to get hold of. So, if you get access to the
database, you get access to it around 50 different financial reports for dark
companies which are not available in the public domain. So, all this kind of
information and these techniques we've built up over time, we essentially have
just kind of channeled all that into creating the database, just to help other
investors that maybe don't have that time to conduct that research or that
they're kind of busy with other things in their life.
Ney
Torres: [00:26:09] So, the moment you find an interest in a stock,
do you put it on the blog? Do you wait a year to release the manual? What do
you do?
David
Flood: [00:26:19] So, the minute where we will add any interesting
new companies that we've, we find we will be adding those the database over
time. So, yeah, as soon as we find them, it will be literally, probably a few
weeks and then I will be then added to the database once we've conducted some
research. Sometimes we may wait because we want to kind of build up a bigger
picture on the company. We want to maybe try and get hold of financials or
conduct some due diligence. But generally, there's a fairly short time like
between when we find a new company and then when it gets added to the database
and we're also monitoring for companies that are delisting from the main
exchanges like the NASDAQ and the New York Stock Exchange, they will kind of
find their way onto the over the counter markets. And they'll then be added to
the database as well.
Ney
Torres: [00:27:05] Thanks, David. Okay. Young, what are the main
problems of OTC, investing in OTC?
Young
Svenda: [00:27:14] Main problems. I mean I guess for people; do you
mean for people who want to start investing in OTC?
Ney
Torres: [00:27:23] Yes. Those people are just starting out and
looking at the OTC market that should be aware of this, this and this.
Young
Svenda: [00:27:30] Sure. Well, I think there should be a disclosure
here really definitely that DOTC market is very different in some ways and the
risks are really not very similar to the list market. I think for people who
want to start in the OTC, I mean, they should have already had some investing
background, not necessarily anything great but just investing in the public
market and getting that all already helps a bit just because it can be quite
crazy. Sometimes some of the situation can be illiquid when you hold Apple, you
are confident that you're going to sell Apple the next day. Apple stock but
here in the OTC market sometimes it can become illiquid the stock. So, you
can't sell it that fast. So, I think that that is one thing to take in mind.
The liquidity of the position and the stock, how easy is it to get in to get
out. Of course, if you're dealing with, let's say smaller amounts, I think it's
very easy and actually that's also a kind of advantage because if you have
smaller amounts, you can actually take advantage of some of the stocks that
other bigger investors could not accumulate but perhaps that's one thing. A
second thing is knowing that you're not really getting scammed. This is I think
fairly easy into OTC market because if there are frauds or if there are pumpkin
dumps and the OTC market, it's fairly obvious that they are and there have been
so many like cryptocurrency schemes and whatever have you and now call it
related schemes for sure where they would start putting out press releases and
start showing that, "Oh yeah, the business is booming and so on and so
forth." But then actually in reality, there's just nothing but a lot of
times, New York or DC space, it's very visible because you can, for example,
pull up the SCC filing or try to find more information. If you can't find the
information probably it's not worth investing. So, a lot of times that's kind
of something you have to be careful about, but I think a lot of times, it just
very easy to understand that this sounds fishy. I probably don't want to invest
in deal. The next vaccine COVID-19 vaccine, which is somehow the being
developed in Cambodia. Totally real, totally could happen in the OTC market, I
think there are these examples where it's too good to be true and it's very
easily analyzable. So, but on the other hand, there is a kind of like a
different process, different due diligence that you have to do in the OTC
market space. But of course, where the database that we have you can kind of
get a head start and you can kind of see our comments. You can see what's been
happening. And the database is one thing, but of course I did a lot of research
in the past which you can also purchase. There is an older research that you
can purchase that is actually very helpful because they can give you a good
Insight into a lot of the stocks that are in the database. So, perhaps the main
problems are a bit of the trading itself. Secondly, it's a bit of different
processes, different due diligence and kind of perhaps things that are attached
to those two challenges and are kind of in between those two groups let's say
of risks but I think that's probably the biggest two.
Ney
Torres: [00:31:07] Thank you. So, I have two more questions for you
guys. What's your position sizing? How do you see position sizing regularly? In
my case, just to make a point is if I invest somewhere from 1% to 3% is because
I'm kind of a speculating, maybe these will work or not. I'm not very sure, but
statistically, that stock seems cheap. So, one to 3%, if I have some certainty will
go up to 10% to 20 even 30%, what is your position sizing like?
David
Flood: [00:31:41] So, I'll answer the first. Personally, I hold
quite a lot of stocks in my portfolio. I tend to follow an approach which is
quite similar to Don Shaun. I'll own maybe 30, 40, 50 stocks but I'll probably
only put maybe one, 2% in each one. But then occasionally if I find a certain
situation with a company where I think it warrants a larger position then I may
kind of go in heavy with that company. But generally, it's kind of a small
position in a lot of stocks which is kind of influenced as well by the approach
that Walter Schloss Luce used to take away would kind of just buy a large
basket of undervalued companies and then just kind of wait for them to play
out. So, that's the kind of position sizing that I have.
Young
Svenda: [00:32:32] For me, it really varies but on the long side
because I do quite a lot of shorts selling as well but like on the long side
and OTC space. I think concentration can be can be pretty good if you have
long-term horizon. So, I think one thing to take into account is just how long
you're capable and comfortable with holding the assets. A lot of times the DOTC
space. I think some of the thesis has to play out over a year. Some of them not
so much. Some of them can be within a month or within half a year. But a lot of
times it's about the comfortable comfort levels of the duration. And so, for
me, for example, I'm very comfortable with holding something for 10 years even
if it's not really going to move that much, for example, it's a dividend yield
or so on and so forth. So, that's one thing and then for the percentages,
concentration is pretty good. I would not go above 10% personally because I had
some bad experience with that very early on. And I think that I, one of my
rules is not to go over 10% ever and with the statistical opportunities. I
mean, of course, you can build up a position quite early on, start small and
just track the company and track the developments. I think I would have very
mature similar approach in that regard to you and the only thing is not to
cross 10%, so I don't really make a huge philosophy out of it or have a
specifically kind of like statistical approach where I would somehow try to
manage the portfolio too much but in the OTC long space, I think the
concentration can be a good thing but you have to be kind of careful with how
long you are capable of holding it and so on and so forth. Otherwise, of course
you can have a portfolio of many, many, many stocks that might start to move
but perhaps, maybe that's where David can come in as well a bit because he is
doing a lot of research of low price stocks and waiting for the turnarounds or
some events that might unlock some of the value where of course it makes sense to
go for a larger portfolio and try to let's say diversify but in my mind, in the
long space in the long side of the OTC space for me, it's about quite
concentrated.
Ney
Torres: [00:35:06] Thank you guys. The final question, what would
you tell yourself when you started these whole stocks and investing in stocks
journey? Let's start with David.
David
Flood: [00:35:21] So, initially, when I started investing, I was
probably what you would call a Buffett Pro. So, I was kind of like infatuated
with the modern Warren Buffett, which was looking for these large companies
that had durable, competitive advantages. And thinking of buying these
companies and then holding them forever. Over time, they're just not a really
suitable approach for a small investor to take the whole reason that Warren
Buffett uses that approach is because he's dealing with hundreds of billions of
dollars. So, he can't go and buy these kinds of tiny little companies anymore.
So, then I found an interview that you'd done, I think he was asked a question
by someone it was asked basically what would you do if you were starting out
with a small amount of capital. And he said, I would be looking at these,
basically these tiny companies on the over the counter markets, the secondary
markets. And I would be, I'm trying to find really undervalued situations. So,
I think if I could give myself some advice when I first started, it would be to
go straight to looking at these very small, very illiquid companies on
secondary right markets, rather than looking for large companies that have
moats. Because that's just not really the best approach for a small investor in
my view. I think the small investor can gain an advantage by going where the
large institutions can't. And that is basically looking at these tiny companies
that are on the, over the counter markets and maybe the aim market of the
London stock exchange. If you can focus your attention on these really smaller
liquid companies, you'll find much greater mispricing, but also you can kind of
have an advantage from information arbitrage. If you're willing to conduct a
lot of research into these small companies which way under the radar then you
can do quite well for yourself. So, I think that's the advice I would give
myself.
Young
Svenda: [00:37:20] Yeah, for me, I think would be the same which
perhaps is not really a surprise since what we're doing right now. And that's
of course, maybe a slight bias, but I think it's about informational advantage.
It's really about what David said, where if you're trying to hunt when, where
everybody else's hunting then of course, you're going to have a lot less
probability of finding something interesting and finding a piece of information
that actually not many people have. It's not about having the information that
nobody else has but it's about having information that only few has if you have
an app that's already good enough. And I think in the OTC market probably
you're going to find something like that. If you are going to focus on it, I
think I'll be careful with starting out all guns blazing and just investing a
lot now in the OTC market but carefully, trying out a few stock, trying out the
research and so on and so forth because it is about that information advantage
that you can attach you can attain in the OTC market, right? And in investing,
that's all there is to it. If you know some things that other people don't then
you want right, you're going to have the better outcomes. So, that's the core
of investing and I think a lot of times some smaller investors might think,
well, nowadays that's kind of impossible or they might seem it's not really
attainable but I think that if you go small and if you start looking into the
obscure, you can probably find something that that really works. What a good
example of information advantage because it kind of seems elusive, right? So,
it seems like, "Okay, can I really find something that actually where the
information is not really out there yet? And can I actually get advantage of
that? I think one example from the OTC space for me was a company that was
being acquired. And so, what exactly what happened was that I was just going
through with the OTC market. I was going at one time by one and then I stumbled
upon this company. And I knew it before I looked into it but it wasn't really
that interesting, but I looked into it and it was after market hours. So,
basically the market already closed. And I just kind of did my usual search. I
looked at the website, I look at the press releases if there were any and I
suddenly noticed that after hours in the market as well that they announced
that they're going to be acquired basically. And the share price of the company
was $1 and so it was about it was six or 7:00 PM EST or something like that and
basically, I said, "Well, I mean okay the share price is $1 per share and
the merger or the acquisition is going to happen at $2." So, basically
someone is paying a hundred percent more than what the market was paying for
the company just before the market closed. And of course, before the news of
the acquisition and basically, I thought to myself, "Okay, I'm going to go
with a try. I'm just going to set up an order and I'm going to try to buy some
shares the next morning." And I'm going to try to buy like, I don't know,
like for 1.20-1.10 just the slight premium to the closing price, but of course
slight a lot less to the acquisition price. And I'll see if somebody can
actually sell me the stock for that price. It wouldn't make any sense because
the information is out there is going to get acquired at $2 per share. Why
would you sell it to anyone at 1.10 or 1.20? So, I was just like, "Okay,
well, I'm just going to give it a try. I'm going to put few hundred dollars
here and see what happens." And guess what, actually, the next day I kind of
just did my usual stuff worked. And then I looked at it in my brokerage account
and I saw that actually someone sold the company, sold the shares to me at, I
think overall, like the average was 1.25 or something like that. And I was able
to sell that the very day for $2 a share just because the market finally
realized, "Oh shit, a there is a merger going on. The acquisition and
actually the right price for the stock is $2, not a 1.25 that someone told it
to me at that. This is really the epitomal move kind of information advantage
which can still sometimes happen. Again, of course, this was rather an odd ball
situation. It doesn't happen that often but it boils down to this where it's
something that not many people know and you can take advantage of that.
Ney
Torres: [00:41:58] Thank you very much, gentleman. This has been a
great episode. This is exactly what I think people should start with either
willing to put the time into it. Start with A's. David, what's your blog work?
Where can people find you?
David
Flood: [00:42:12] You can get in touch with me at
elementaryvalue.com, which is a blog where I write about these tiny little
companies and you can also get in touch with me on Twitter @elementaryvalue.
Ney
Torres: [00:42:25] Thank you very much. Mr. Young, where can people
find you?
Young
Svenda: [00:42:28] And yeah, so the best thing is to for the
listeners to check out Svendamanual.com, where you will be able to get access
to the database that we've talked about so much in this episode. So, that's the
best way to contact manuals as well, but I'm on Twitter as well as just my
name, Young Svenda. Do checkouts for the manual.com where me and David are
building the database and providing commentary and providing some updates for
people interested in the OTC space.
Ney
Torres: [00:42:59] Thank you so much, gentlemen. It's been a
pleasure. See you in the next location.
Young
Svenda: [00:43:05] Thanks a lot.
David
Flood: [00:43:05] Thank you.